Forecasting the collection of the state value added tax (ICMS) in Santa Catarina: the general to specific approach in regression analysis

  • Eder Daniel Corvalão UFSC
  • Robert Wayne Samoryl UFSC
  • Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil UFES
Keywords: Forecasting, general to specific, value added taxes

Abstract

In this paper was verified the possibility of improving the monthly forecasts of the Value Added Tax on Merchandise and Services (ICMS) collected by the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Dynamic regression will be used based on the concepts of cointegration and error correction utilizing the general to specific approach suggested by the London School of Economics (LSE). Different data series were selected and analyzed for the final model industry profit, consumption of electric energy and other energy sources, and cement, and business consultations to the Credit Service Protection Agency (SPC). In the process of the choice of the variables, Granger’s tests of causality and the analysis of long-run equations were used. The results obtained were very satisfactory for forecasts both inside and outside the sample period, indicating that the use of this model by the Budget Department of the State of Santa Catarina will provide more suitable values for the decision making process and improvement in budget planning.


Author Biographies

Eder Daniel Corvalão, UFSC
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Eder Daniel Corvalão is a System Analyst from Centro de Informática e Automação de Santa Catarina (CIASC). He received the degree of Doctor of Industrial Engineer at the Federal University of Santa Catarina – Brazil, in 2009. His areas of interest are Time series analysis, Forecasting and Data Mining.

Robert Wayne Samoryl, UFSC
<!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:595.3pt 841.9pt; margin:70.85pt 3.0cm 70.85pt 3.0cm; mso-header-margin:35.4pt; mso-footer-margin:35.4pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> Robert Wayne Samohyl, Ph. D. Professor Bob is from Houston, Texas, Ph.D. in Economics from Rice University, and has lived in Brazil permanently since 1978. He is full professor and recent Chairman of the Industrial Engineering Department, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Southern Brazil, a region known for a thriving software industry and wonderful beaches. He is recent Vice President of the Brazilian Operations Research Society. He has developed courses for the internet in Statistics, Econometrics and Forecasting, and taught by video-conferencing. He is presently coordinating a government project for implementing forecasting techniques in electrical energy companies. His most recent publication is “Multivariate feed back control: an application in a productive process.” Computers and Industrial Engineering (Elsevier), 46 (2004) 837-850.


 

Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil, UFES
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Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil is a full professor of the Department of Statistics at the Federal University of Espírito Santo – Brazil.  He received the degree of Doctor of Electrical Engineer, in 1989 at the Pontífica Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro.  Professor Gutemberg is a member of the Brazilian Operations Research Society. His areas of interest are Time series analysis, Bayesian models, Econometrics and Forecasting.

How to Cite
Corvalão, E. D., Samoryl, R., & Brasil, G. (1). Forecasting the collection of the state value added tax (ICMS) in Santa Catarina: the general to specific approach in regression analysis. Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management, 7(1), 105-121. Retrieved from https://bjopm.emnuvens.com.br/bjopm/article/view/V7N1A5
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