Development of a scenario prospecting model with the use of multicriteria decision aiding: Importance of environmental variables

  • José Artur Moraes Vieira Universidade Federal Fluminense
  • Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes Universidade Federal Fluminense
  • Igor Engel Braga Universidade Federal Fluminense
Keywords: Prospective scenarios, Strategic planning, MDA, Corporate Social Responsibility, CSR


The significance of using resources optimally comes from its increasingly present scarcity, whether they are related to the environment, term, financial resources, and political or legal difficulties. This study proposes the use of prospective scenarios, considering multiple and uncertain alternatives. It can be an essential tool for the strategic planning process of organizations. The motivation of the subject studied is the possibility to contribute to the expansion of the corporate strategic planning vision and towards social welfare, related to the commitment of companies to society, since it proposes a model for prospecting scenarios supported by multicriteria decision aiding (MDA) approach, necessarily considering variables related to Corporate Social Responsibility and its nuances. As a result, it is expected to fill the identified gap, which places prospecting scenarios as an empirical tool that deals only with economics and a single future possibility. For further research the application of the model in an actual case is suggested, still raising important questions such as: is there a real contribution with the application of prospective scenarios? Is this tool applicable to any type of company? Who are the stakeholders and how do you measure the effectiveness of this tool?